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This question is very frustrating as it takes me down so many roads that go no where. There are so many quotations websites that list “famous quotes” but list no reference of where they came from.
In the case of the question here the quotation is stated as “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years” and asks In what context did Bill Gates say that?
Where exactly did Bill Gates say that? Can you cite a page number from a book? Can you point to a specific speech he made? I couldn't find any.
On numerous websites there are variations of the quote as, “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.”
While the wording is slightly different, it does change the context a bit. There is a difference in “what they can do” pointing to a more personal accomplishment, versus “what will happen” in a more global sense.
Another variation of the quote can be found as “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.” References state this quote as from his book, “The Road Ahead,” published in 1996. That was at a time when Microsoft was taking off as a corporate giant, and Gates was telling the story of the first 20 years of Microsoft.
I currently don't have a copy of “The Road Ahead” to find the exact page and context of the quote, but in that quote the message is clearer in that it ends with “Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
The variations of the Gates quote are also similar to Amara's Law, by Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future, which states, “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
Many questions on Quora ask about what a famous person meant when they uttered some famous words. Often I find that the quote is based on myth and legend rather than facts. In this case there appears to assorted versions of this quote, which knowing the exact context would help to understanding it better.
I will set this search aside for now, but I am sure I will come back to it at some time. It is frustrating because there are so many websites have a link to cite them as the source of the quote, but they are not the original source of the quote, and they offer no footnotes or references on the origin of the quote. It is another example of the wonders of our modern internet and having access to much more information but understanding less.
You have access to much more information but understand less http://questy.us/blog/you-have-access-much-more-information-understand-less
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We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction. Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/billgates404193.html
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.” From his book, “The Road Ahead,” published in 1996.
“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” ― Bill Gates https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/302999-most-people-overestimate-what-they-can-do-in-one-year
Bill Gates is quoted as saying “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” – https://medium.com/@jeffgonyea/overestimate-one-year-be7ec75c0503
Where exactly did Bill Gates say that? Can you cite a page number from a book? Can you point to a specific speech he made?
https://www.reddit.com/r/quotes/comments/1wzpou/most_people_overestimate_what_they_can_do_in_one/
Welcome to Wikiquote https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Main_Page
New York Public Library: How to Research a Quotation https://www.nypl.org/blog/2013/11/22/how-to-research-quotations
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run,” coined by Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future.
https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/37701/amara-s-law
What year Amara's Law
“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” - Bill Gates
“People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” - Bill Gates
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.” - Bill Gates
“We usually overestimate what we think we can accomplish in one year-but we grossly underestimate what we can accomplish in a decade.” - Tony Robbins
“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years”
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